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Mon, 16 Jun, 2014 06:02:40 PM FTimes- Xinhua Report, June 16
The risk of the German economy undergoing recession has slightly decreased and remains overall very low, said the economic indicator of the Institute of Macroeconomic Research (IMK) in the Hans Boeckler Foundation on Monday.
The current prediction is based on data available from the beginning of June.
IMK's early warning tool showed an average probability of recession of 5.3 percent for the period from June to August 2014. In May, the probability was 8.4 percent.
According to the traffic light system of the indicator, the probability of recession in Germany remains deep in the "green zone," with the low risk zone under 30 percent.
The study said recovery of incoming orders from abroad was decisive in reducing the probability of recession in Germany. In particular, orders from the euro area have risen significantly in recent weeks.
The low probability of recession supports the economic forecast of the IMK, as the researchers expect an upswing and a GDP increase of 1.6 percent for 2014. In 2015, the German economy will grow by 2.4 percent.
Industrial production was used as a reference value for recession since it responds more quickly to a slump in demand than GDP. The IMK economic indicator is updated monthly. More News
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